The election is a race between Labor and Liberal to secure enough seats to win government.

Voting for the Greens, Independent or a Minor Party will hold Labor back in the race and help the Liberals win.

After 10 years of Liberal Government, vulnerable Tasmanians are hurting and Tasmania faces cost of living, housing and health crises.

The upcoming Election is on a knife-edge – with Labor fighting to catch the Liberals in the latest public polling.

Support for Independents and the Jacqui Lambie Network has grown and they could decide the next State Election.

The problem is that Jacqui Lambie and the Independents have not given a commitment to kick out the Liberals if they are elected.

Jacqui Lambie has said that no decision will be made until after the election and has indicated the number of seats Labor and Liberal win could determine who she supports.

This means the election is a race between Labor and Liberal to secure enough seats to win government.

If Labor doesn’t win enough seats –the Liberals will do a deal with Independents and the Jacqui Lambie Network to stay in power.

By voting for the Greens, Independent or any other party you will hold Labor back and make it harder for Rebecca White to kick out the Liberals.

"We would have to see the make-up of the major parties, how many we get and how many they get"
Jacqui Lambie

"I will work with and talk to the leaders of the major parties, and also other independents and other crossbench members to try and form consensus, and to try and form stability"
Key Independent MP

Tasmania's unique electoral system mean Labor cannot rely on Greens preferences to win seats against the Liberals.

Tasmania has a unique electoral system called Hare-Clark.

Unlike in Federal Elections where compulsory preferential voting means Greens preferences help Labor, under Hare-Clark Greens preferences don't help Labor much which makes it harder for Labor to win seats against the Liberals.

Respected independent election expert Kevin Bonham has written extensively on how Greens preferences don't really make a difference.

In his article "Why Green Preferences Matter Less in Hare-Clark?" Bonham lists several reasons for why Greens preferences don't really matter.

• The Greens often end up competing for the final seat in a division, in which case their preferences are not distributed whether they win or lose.
• When the Greens win a seat more easily than that, much of their vote is soaked up by their quota, leaving a relatively small amount to flow on as preferences to other parties.
• By the time Greens preferences are distributed, it is sometimes the case that all candidates for one major party have been elected or defeated, so the preference throw may only be contributing to internal contests on another party's ticket, or (in rare cases) contests between one of the major parties and somebody else.
• Voters are only required to fill seven boxes, which is the number of candidates the Greens will likely run.  This creates a similar effect at party level to optional preferential voting in NSW - about a third of the Greens votes available as preferences exhaust from the count.

The Greens have stopped Labor winning government before.

Another independent election expert Ben Raue has written about how the Greens stop many 'swing voters' from supporting Labor - this was a major factor in the result of the 2018 election.

It's important at this election that the Greens don't play into the Liberals' hands and once again undermine Labor's chances of forming government.

The consequence of a repeat of 2018 would mean a Liberal Government that has been in power for 14 years.